In terms of weekly performance, the bse benchmark decreased by 1,070.39 points or 1.30%, whil the nifty 50 fell by 284.45 points or 1.13%.
Investors were hesitant to engage with riskier assets due to concerns over a potential full-scale war between israel and Iran, Coupled with Outflows from Foreign Funds.
On the Technical Front, Dharmesh Shah, Vice President at ICICI Securities, Expects Nifty 50 to Hold 24,500 on a Closing Basis.
Shah has recommended two stocks to buy for short-term. Here’s what he expects from Indian Stock Market Next Week, Along with his stock recommendation.
Market Outlook by Dharmesh Shah, Vice President, ICICI Securities
Equity Benchmark Pared Early Week Gains Tracking Subdued Global Cues Owing to Israel’s Military Strike on Iran. Consequently, nifty 50 settled at 24,718, down 1.1%. Mirroring the Benchmark Move, Nifty Midcap and Small Cap Snapped 4 Weeks Winning Streak, Down 1.2%. Sectorly, Profit Booking was observed in recently ralied rate sensives like, realty, financials and auto while it, pharma regained loss low.
The weekly price action will be formed a bear candle Sustaining Above Key Support Zone of 24,500, Indicating Extended Breather. Brent Crude Oil Jumped 18% during the week ($ 78) Tracking Escalated Geopolitical Tensions in the Oil-Rich Middle East. The Risk-of Sentimen Fuled The Momentum in Safe Heaven Gold, UP 3.5% at $ 3440.
Going ahead, we expect valati to remain elevated tracking geopolitical works. Hence, Development of Geopolitical Concern Coupled With Us Fed Policy Today Major Bearing on the Market which will dictate further courses of action. Further, it is important to note that despite elevated valatiity nifty 50 managed to hold key support threshold of 24,500 and staged a rebound. Thereby, in the Coming Week, Holding 24,500 on a Closing Basis Wld Highlight Strength and Open the Door for Further for Police WHEREIN IMMIDITE Resistance is Placed at 25,200.
In the last four decades there have seen six major geopolitical escalations. On Each Occination it formed Major Bottom Once Anxiety Around the Event Settled Down. Investing in Such Panic Reactions with long term mind In the current Scenario, Post the Kneejerk Reaction, We Believe Market Today. Hence, we Advise Dips Should Be Capitalized to Build Quality Portfolios from Medium to long term percent.
Structurally, the elongation of rallies followed by shallow correction is a perfect recipe of bull market. In Current Scenario, Over Past 21 Sessions Index Has Retraced Merely 23.6% of Preced 25 Sessions 16% Up Move. Slower Pace of retracement indicating Robust price structure that bodes well for next leg of up move.
On the broader market front, nifty midcap is undergoing healthy retracement after 28% rally which should be used as boying opptunity based on Folling Observations:
a) Since April low, midcap index has not corrected> 6% While on the weekly chart it has not closed below its previous week’s low. In Current Scenario, Despite Ongoing Volatily, Midcap Index has been maintaining the same rhythm.
b) Further, the ratio chart of nifty 500/nifty 100 has been incing upward that cleared indicates related to the relative outperformance.
c) Improving Market Breadth as Currently 55% of Stock Are Trading Above 200 Days Sma Compared to Last Month Reading of 30%.
Key Monitorable which would provide cushion to the ongoing up move:
a) Development of Geopolitical Concern
c) Brent crude is poised at immediane Hurdle of $ 78. Lack of Follow Through Strength Would Result Into Consolidation in 78-66 Levels
d) Despite Current Decline, Index Vix is ​​Trading Below Immediate Hurdle of 16
e) Further weakness in us dollar index
f) Bilateral Trade Agreement Between India and Us
The key support threshold of 24,500 for the nifty 50 is based on lower band of past four weeks consolidation coincided with 50% retracement of recent rally (23,935-25,222) and friday ‘and friday’ at 24,473.
Stocks to buy this week – dharmesh shah
Dharmesh Shah of ICICI Securities Recommends Buying AbB India, and Godrej Properties Shares Shares This Week.
1. Buy abb india shares in the range of 5,950-6,130. He has abb india share price target of 6,860 with a stop loss of 5,648.
2. Buy Godrej Properties Shares in the range of 2,350-2,470. He has Godrej Properties Share Price Target of 2,748 with a stop loss of 2,218.
Disclaimer: The Research Analyst or his relatives or i-Sec do not have actual/beneficial owners Interest and do not have any material conflict of interest.
The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are that of individual analysts or broking companies, not mint. We Strongly Advise Investors to Consult With Certified Experts Before Making Any Investments Decisions, as Market Conditions Can Change Rapidly and Individual Circumstances May Vary.